{"id":1250,"date":"2023-12-13T18:48:36","date_gmt":"2023-12-13T17:48:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/viager20.fr\/?page_id=1250"},"modified":"2025-12-18T21:39:37","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T19:39:37","slug":"mesure-risques-financiers","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/viager20.com\/index.php\/mesure-risques-financiers\/","title":{"rendered":"Les risques financiers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Viager 2.0 mesure les risques financiers d’un viager en simulant la distribution statistique du co\u00fbt d’acquisition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si le cr\u00e9direntier d\u00e9c\u00e8de plus t\u00f4t que ne le laissait pr\u00e9voir son esp\u00e9rance de vie, le d\u00e9birentier r\u00e9alise un gain. En revanche, il subit une perte si le cr\u00e9direntier vit plus longtemps. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce risque de long\u00e9vit\u00e9 fait varier le co\u00fbt d’acquisition r\u00e9el du bien<\/strong>. Il soul\u00e8ve une question centrale : Quelle est la distribution des risques ?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Viager 2.0 y r\u00e9pond en simulant des milliers de trajectoires possibles de long\u00e9vit\u00e9 des cr\u00e9direntiers, g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9es avec les probabilit\u00e9s de d\u00e9c\u00e8s par \u00e2ge des tables de mortalit\u00e9. \u00c0 chaque simulation correspond un co\u00fbt d\u2019acquisition du bien. Par exemple, on calcule le surco\u00fbt pour le d\u00e9birentier si le cr\u00e9direntier d\u00e9c\u00e8de \u00e0 90 ans et non \u00e0 80 ans comme attendu. En multipliant les simulations, on obtient la distribution statistique du co\u00fbt d\u2019acquisition effectif pour le d\u00e9birentier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un histogramme d\u00e9crit cette distribution. Il fournit la probabilit\u00e9 que le co\u00fbt d’acquisition d\u00e9passe un montant donn\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>
\n

\u2019Px\u2019 repr\u00e9sente l\u2019\u00e9cart en pourcentage entre le co\u00fbt d\u2019acquisition et la valeur v\u00e9nale dans les x % de cas o\u00f9 cet \u00e9cart est le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9. Par exemple, si \u2019P10 : 23.4 %\u2019, dans 10 % des cas, le co\u00fbt d\u2019acquisition d\u00e9passera 617 000 \u20ac (500 000 x (1 + 23.4 %)).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans cet exemple, la distribution des co\u00fbts d’acquisition est sym\u00e9trique. Donc, les risques financiers sont \u00e9quilibr\u00e9s<\/strong>. Ainsi, les probabilit\u00e9s d’un d\u00e9c\u00e8s du couple avant et apr\u00e8s son esp\u00e9rance de vie de 25.8 ans sont similaires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le r\u00e9sultat serait diff\u00e9rent avec des cr\u00e9direntiers tr\u00e8s \u00e2g\u00e9s<\/strong>. Les risques sont alors asym\u00e9triques. Le d\u00e9birentier a une forte <\/span>probabilit\u00e9 de payer un peu moins<\/span> que la valeur v\u00e9nale du bien, contrebalanc\u00e9e par une faible<\/span> probabilit\u00e9 de payer beaucoup plus<\/span>.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Le document r\u00e9capitulatif de la transaction<\/a> envoie la valorisation obtenue et cette analyse de risque \u00e0 l’adresse e-mail fournie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un viager avec un cr\u00e9direntier tr\u00e8s \u00e2g\u00e9 est risqu\u00e9 et son risque augmente avec une rente \u00e9lev\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Viager 2.0 mesure les risques financiers d’un viager en simulant la distribution statistique du co\u00fbt d’acquisition. Si le cr\u00e9direntier d\u00e9c\u00e8de plus t\u00f4t que ne le laissait pr\u00e9voir son esp\u00e9rance de …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"template-fullwidth.php","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1250","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"\nUne mesure des risques financiers<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Viager 2.0 fournit une mesure des risques financiers d'un viager, la probabilit\u00e9 pour que son co\u00fbt d'acquisition d\u00e9passe un certain niveau.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/viager20.com\/index.php\/mesure-risques-financiers\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Une 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